Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2016

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data and the characteristics of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the outbreaks of communicable diseases, such as varicella, influenza, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease and others other infectious diarrheal diseases, might mainly occur in schools in December. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza virus and seasonal influenza would increase. The risk of importation of Zika virus disease to China still exist, and due to the mosquito activity in southern China, Zika virus might further spread after the importation. The viral diarrhea epidemic would continue to occur, and Norovirus might still be the main pathogen. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies, including case number, would be slightly lower in December than in November in 2016 in China. Close attention should be paid to human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, viral diarrhoea and Zika virus disease.