Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, January 2017

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in January 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be lower in January 2017 than in December 2016.Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to occur, and the possibilities of clustering of human infections with H7N9 virus and other avian influenza viruses still exist. The incidences of seasonal influenza, varicella, mumps and other respiratory diseases would increase. Viral diarrhea outbreak would continue with norovirus as main pathogen. The importation of Zika virus disease to China might occur and cause local transmission in southern China where climate condition is suitable, but large scale transmission risk is low. The risk of importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries to China still exist, but the risk of wide transmission is low. It is the high incidence season of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning due to coal fired heating. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be at a lower level in January 2017, similar to the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, viral diarrhea, Zika virus disease and MERS.