Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, April 2017

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in April 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in April 2017 would remain at a high level. Most public health emergencies in April would be the outbreaks of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD), varicella, influenza, mumps and other infectious diarrheal diseases in schools. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to decline, but possibly higher than previous years, and there is a possibility of the incidence of clusters of H7N9 avian virus influenza and other avian influenza virus infections. The incidence of respiratory diseases, such as seasonal influenza, varicella and mumps, would remain at a high level. The incidence of HFMD would increase gradually. The outbreaks of norovirus infection would continue to occur, mainly in schools. The risk of importation of vector bone diseases, including Zika virus disease, yellow fever and dengue fever, still exists, the transmission or small clusters following the importation might occur in some province in southern China, but the risk of large scale transmission is low. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in April 2017 would remain at a high level, similar to the previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, HFMD, norovirus infection, Zika virus disease, yellow fever and dengue fever.