Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, September 2017

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in September 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in September than in August 2017, which was associated with the increase of disease outbreaks among students after school reopening. Several domestic areas reported local dengue fever outbreaks, and the risk of local transmission of dengue fever would increase in the other areas with abundance of aedes mosquito because of the movement of people. There is also the risk of importation and local spread of Chikungunya fever, Zika virus disease and other mosquito borne diseases. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus might continue to occur. Food poisoning would still have a high incidence in September, and mushroom poisoning would be the main cause of death. Seasonal influenza incidence would remain high in southern provinces and low in northern provinces, but the outbreaks might increase among students due to school reopening. It is possible for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) to spread into China, but the risk of mass transmission is very low. This summer, the incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) increased, but it is in a downward trend. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in China would increase in September 2017. Particular concern should be paid to the Zika virus disease, dengue fever, Chikungunya fever and other mosquito borne diseases; close concern to human H7N9 virus infection; and general concern to food poisoning, seasonal influenza and MERS. The risk of JE should be recognized.