Application of time series analysis on prediction of incidence of HIV/AIDS in Dongcheng District of Beijing

Objective To evaluate the feasibility of the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) in the prediction of monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS in Dongcheng District of Beijing. Methods Software SAS 9.3 was used to establish an ARIMA model based on the monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS from 2005 to 2014. Then the established model was used to predict the monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS in Dongcheng district in 2015. Results The established model of ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 had a better fitted effect. The actual incidence rate was in the range of 95%CI of predicted value of the model. Conclusion The established ARIMA model could predict the monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS in Dongcheng district of Beijing, which might provide reference for prevention and control of AIDS.