Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict human brucellosis incidence in Liaoning province

Objective To establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict human brucellosis incidence in Liaoning,evaluate the influence of animal husbandry on human brucellosis and provide evidence for the prevention and control of human brucellosis. Methods The surveillance data of brucellosis from January 2006 to December 2016 in Liaoning were collected for the establishment of ARIMA model to predict and validate the brucellosis incidence from January to June 2016 in Liaoning. The sheep stock data at the end of a year from 2006 to 2016 were collected to analysis its relationship with human brucellosis. Results The ARIMA(1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1)12 was established,and the predictive incidence was similar to the actual incidence,but this model showed a lower accuracy. There was a positive correlation between sheep stock at the end of the year and the outbreak of human brucellosis. Conclusion It was feasible to establish a ARIMA model for predicting brucellosis incidence in Liaoning. It is important to strengthen human brucellosis surveillance and find out the the epidemiological correlation between human and livestock.