Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,April 2018

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones from other countries,which might occur in the mainland of China in April 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in April than in March 2018, mainly the outbreaks of chickenpox,mumps,influenza,other infectious diarrheal diseases,hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD)occurred in schools. The incidence of seasonal influenza will continue to decrease to off-season level. It is time of health examination for students attending college and senior high school entrance examinations,more tuberculosis(TB)cases might be reported in students. The TB cases reported in the elderly would also increase due to the services targeting seniors in primary health care successively conducted in different areas. Many people like to pick fresh wild vegetables and fruits to eat in spring outing,however,they lack the knowledge for identifying poisonous plants,so food poisoning or allergy events might occur resulting from the intake of poisonous plants. The risks of importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome from Saudi Arabia, cholera from Somalia,yellow fever from Brazil and reassortant influenza A(H1N2)virus from Netherlands to the mainland of China are low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in April would has a normal seasonal increase in the mainland of China. However,there will be no events to which close attention should be paid,general attention should be paid to the public health risks of norovirus infection,influenza,TB and food poisoning caused by poisonous plants, and no particular attention needs to be paid to the public health emergencies occurred in other countries.