Spatial-temporal distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, 2016

Objective To explore the spatial distribution and spatial-temporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Hubei province in 2016.

Methods Trend surface analysis, spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal scanning analysis were conducted to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD at county/district level in Hubei.

Results Trend analysis showed that an U-type curve could be used to describe the HFMD distribution from the south to the north and from the west to the east in Hubei. A positive autocorrelation of HFMD spatial distribution was observed in 2016 (Moran′sI＝0.278, P＝0.001). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the highly clustered and hot spot areas were in southeastern Hubei, including Daye, Huangzhou, Tieshan, Xialu, Huangshigang, Echeng, Liangzihu and Huarong. Two statistically significant HFMD clusters, which occurred in southeastern and northwestern Hubei from April to July, were identified by spatial-temporal scan statistics.

Conclusion Obvious spatial-temporal clustering of HFMD was found in Hubei. It is necessary to conduct targeted HFMD prevention and control in the key areas identified and improve the allocation of public health resources.