Objective To analyze the surveillance data of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hubei province from 2010 to 2017, describe the population, spatial and temporal distribution of HFRS, and make prediction of its incidence in 2018.
Methods Traditional epidemiology, space epidemiology, time series analysis and other methods were used in combination with software SaTScan, ArcGIS and SPSS to explore the spatiotemporal distribution of HFRS in Hubei from 2010 to 2017 and predict its incidence trend.
Results The overall incidence of HFRS was highly sporadic from 2010 to 2017. The overall incidence was higher in 2017 than in other years. The disease occurred all the year round with two incidence peaks in May and December. The change trend of reported case number was basically consistent with rat density. From 2010 to 2015, the average rat density generally showed an upward trend. It increased year by year to 5.31% in 2015. There was some spatiotemporal clustering of HFRS in 2017, which was in central Hubei. The ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,1) model had the best fitting effect and the residual was white, The noise test can provide suggestions for the early monitoring and early warning of HFRS in Hubei. It is estimated that the case number of HFRS in Hubei from January to June of 2018 would be about 192, indicating a high incidence year.
Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in Hubei was in increase in recent two years, and the incidence of HFRS had a positive correlation with rat density. The prediction of HFRS epidemic should be made in combination with the use of ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,1) model in central Hubei, and it is suggested to continue the comprehensive HFRS prevention and control, such as surveillance, health education, deratization and immunization, according to the rat density and virus carriage rate surveillance results.
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