Incidence trend and characteristics of cerebral infarction in residents in Tianjin, 2010−2016

ObjectiveTo investigate the incidence trend and characteristics of cerebral infarction in residents between 2010 and 2016, analyze the incidence differences in population with different characteristics, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of cerebral infarction.

MethodsThe data of new cerebral infarction cases between 2010 and 2016 were collected from Tianjin Cerebral Infarction Surveillance System. The incidence of cerebral infarction and its distribution in different age groups, gender groups and urban or rural areas was analyzed. The population data based on the Sixth National Population Census in 2010 were used for standardized rate estimation. Difference among different groups was compared with χ² test. The χ_trend² test was used to analyze the incidence trend with years and in different age groups. The change of the incidence during this period and prediction of the incidence during 2017–2020 were analyzed by using Joinpoint software.

ResultsThe average age of initial cerebral infarction was 65.50 years, the smoking rate was 32.18%, and the recurrent rate was 34.01%. The incidence rate of cerebral infarction in Tianjin increased gradually from 2010 to 2016 with the crude incidence rate ranging from 379.70/100 000 to 583.64/100 000, and with the standardized incidence rate ranged from 212.40/100 000 to 291.52/100 000 (P＜0.000 1). The increase in rural area was more obvious. The incidence rate was consistently higher in male residents (the crude incidence: 450.17/100 000–698.82/100 000, the standardized incidence rate: 249.20/100 000–350.34/100 000) than in female residents (the crude incidence rate: 308.44/100 000–467.87/100 000, the standardized incidence rate: 174.48/100 000–232.85/100 000, all P＜0.001). And in all age groups, the incidences in men were higher than in women (P＜0.001). According to the prediction, the incidence of cerebral infarction in Tianjin will reach 808.58/100 000, and the standardized incidence of the disease will be 371.03/100 000 by 2020.

ConclusionThe incidence of cerebral infarction increased during the past 7 years. There was no turning point for decrease, and the increasing trend was more obvious in rural areas and in men. Attention should be paid to the disease and targeted interventions should be taken to reduce the incidence of cerebral infarction.