Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, May 2019

ObjectiveTo assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in May 2019.

MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this meeting through video terminal.

ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in May than in April, 2019, which might be mainly the events of varicella, hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD), mumps and infectious diarrhea. The incidence of HFMD would gradually become higher to reach peak. Imported cases of dengue fever from other countries might still be found, and indigenous cases and small outbreaks of dengue fever might occur in high risk areas such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hainan, and Yunnan provinces. The activity of human infection with avian influenza virus would be low; however, the sporadic cases of human infections with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and other subtype viruses of animal influenza might continue to occur. More food poisoning might occur, and the incidence of food poisoning caused by bacterial pathogens or poisonous mushrooms would increase. Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo will continue; however, the risk of the spread to China is low.

ConclusionClose attention should be paid to the incidence of HFMD, and general attention should be paid to dengue fever, human infection with avian influenza virus, food poisoning and EVD in Democratic Republic of Congo.