Tuberculosis register rate in Changping district, Beijing, 2010–2017

ObjectiveTo understand the current status of register and the epidemic trend of tuberculosis (TB) in Changping district of Beijing during 2010–2017.

MethodsThe TB register data, population and economy data in Changping were collected from TB Information Management System and Beijing Statistical Yearbook, and the data were modeled and analyzed by constructing Probit regression model.

ResultsBetween 2010 and 2017, a binomial relationship might existed between the year and the register rate of active pulmonary TB cases. After excluding the proportions of permanent population aged ≥65 years and permanent immigrant population, the Probit regression model was fitted with the annual square term, year and GDP as independent variables. The model fitted the data (Pearson's χ²＝6.510, P＝0.164; Logarithmic likelihood ratio χ²＝6.613, P＝0.158). The results of Probit regression model showed that the register rate of active TB cases was in a downward trend during 2010–2012 and in an upward trend during 2012–2017 (Wald χ²＝1.994×10⁷, P＜0.001). The regression coefficient of GDP and the prevalence rate of active TB was −0.001 5, and the register rate of active TB cases decreased with the increase of GDP in Changping (Wald χ²＝56.620, P＜0.001) after adjusting for year variable. There was no significant difference between active pulmonary TB register rate and the proportion of permanent immigrant population in Changping.

ConclusionThe register rate of active TB cases showed an increase trend in Changping after 2012, but the register rate declined slightly in 2017 compared with 2016, suggesting that the register rate of active TB would gradually become stable in Changping since 2017.