Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, September 2019

ObjectiveTo assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in September 2019.

MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.

ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be slightly higher in September than in August 2019. It is the high incidence season of dengue fever in the area where Aedes exists, indigenous cases would continue to increase and local outbreaks would continue to occur or the risk of large scale outbreaks exits in grade Ⅰ provinces, in addition, the possibility of local transmission and outbreaks caused by imported cases exists in grade Ⅱ and grade Ⅲ provinces where imported case number and Aedes density are high. The autumn epidemic season of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is coming. Sporadic cases of cholera might continue to occur. It is the high incidence season of anthrax, and anthrax is more likely to occur in the previous anthrax foci in western and northeastern China. Outbreaks of Guillain-Barre syndrome caused by Campylobacter jejuni infection might occur. The incidence of food poisoning would continue to be high. Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo would continue; however, the risk of its spread to China is low.

ConclusionClose attention should be paid to dengue fever and HFMD, and general attention should be paid to cholera, anthrax, C. jejuni infection, Guillain-Barre syndrome, food poisoning and EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo.