Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, December 2019

ObjectiveTo assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in December 2019.

MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.

ResultsIt is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be at a high level in December, but it would be lower compared with November. If the increase of influenza outbreaks accelerate abnormally, this prediction might be affected. Most events reported in December might be the outbreaks of seasonal influenza, varicella, mumps, and norovirus infection. The risk of human plague in Inner Mongolia would be obviously lower because of lower air temperature and the progress in plague prevention and control. The seasonal increase of influenza incidence would occur and the epidemics of infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus would continue to increase. Compared with November, the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would rise due to increased unsafe winter heating in December. The incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) would be at a seasonal high level, but it would be lower compared with the same period in 2018.

ConclusionClose attention should be paid to plague and seasonal influenza, and general attention should be paid to norovirus caused infectious diarrhea, HFRS and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.