Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2020

ObjectiveTo assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in January 2020.

MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.

ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies reported in January 2020 would be lower than that in December 2019 and those during the same periods of previous three years, which might mainly be predominated by the epidemics of seasonal influenza, varicella, infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning event. Dynamical risk assessment should be conducted according to the progress of investigations of etiology, clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the 2019 novel coronavirus infections occurred recently in Wuhan. The peak of seasonal influenza might occur at the end of January. The incidences of infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would still remain at high levels in January. In domestic vacation trips during the Spring Festival, travelers should pay attention to seasonal influenza, human infection with avian influenza virus, infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus, food poisoning and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. While travelling abroad, Chinese travelers should pay attention to Ebola virus disease, cholera, dengue fever, yellow fever, Zika virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome, as well as food hygiene.

ConclusionClose attention should be paid to the 2019 novel coronavirus infections occurred in Wuhan and seasonal influenza, general attention should be paid to infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus, non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning and the Spring Festival travelling related health problems.