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Fengying Wei, Jinjie Wang, Xianming Xu, Jianzhao Gao, Boling Wang, Chiyu Ma, Zhihang Peng, Zhen Jin, Sen-Zhong Huang. Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(6): 467-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.06.004
Citation: Fengying Wei, Jinjie Wang, Xianming Xu, Jianzhao Gao, Boling Wang, Chiyu Ma, Zhihang Peng, Zhen Jin, Sen-Zhong Huang. Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(6): 467-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.06.004
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Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide

    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • ObjectiveWe give projections of the COVID-19 epidemic course worldwide.
    MethodsBased on a generic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed) model which incorporates the main epidemiological parameters and control efficacy into it, we construct thereby the webapp EpiSIX and use it to forecast the possible tendency of the epidemic course of COVID-19.
    ResultsIdeally, the epidemic course worldwide would be stopped by the end of September 2020, with outcomes of 7.0 million diagnosed cases worldwide and 2.5 million diagnosed cases in the USA (currently 5.4 million worldwide and 1.67 million in USA).
    ConclusionWe make a Warning: Predicted only for the first wave. Be careful with the emerging of second wave.
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