ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the northwest and northeast border areas of China (as of April 20, 2020) and provide scientific basis for prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic situation.
MethodsThe population density data of two areas were collected. The epidemic data of COVID-19, which were released by the National Health Commission and local governments, from January 23, 2020 to April 20, 2020 in cities of Xinjiang in northwestern China and in cities of Heilongjiang in northeastern China were used to analyze the infection rate in these areas. The trend analysis was carried out by using Joinpoint software according to the day percentage change (DPC).
ResultsAs of April 20, 2020, a total of 989 confirmed cases had been reported in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang, i.e. 76 cases in Xinjiang and 913 cases in Heilongjiang, including 383 imported cases. The overall incidence of COVID-19 in Xinjiang showed normal trend, rising slowly at first (DPC=7.0%, P<0.05) and then declining rapidly (DPC=−12.0%, −64.2%, all P<0.05). The epidemic in Heilongjiang was relatively complex with two peaks. In the first peak, the incidence increased rapidly (DPC=20.1%, P<0.05), and then decreased slowly (DPC=−11.4%, −56.6%, all P<0.05). In the second peak, the incidence increased more rapidly (DPC=129.4%, P<0.05), then decreased slowly again (DPC=−10.1%, P<0.05).
ConclusionThe epidemics of COVID-19 in the two areas were caused by imported cases. More imported cases may pose serious challenge to the prevention and control of COVID-19. However, if the prevention and control measures can be effectively implemented, the epidemic can be controlled in a short period of time, otherwise it is prone to spread.
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