Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021

Guo Deyin; Jiang Jiafu; Song Hongbin; Qin Tian; Li Zhenjun; Zhang Dingmei; Huang Senzhong; Shu Yuelong; Xu Jianqing; Jiang Shibo; Zheng Tao; Tian Huaiyu; Hao Rongzhang; Xu Jianguo

doi:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

Volume 35 Issue 12

Dec. 2020

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Guo Deyin, Jiang Jiafu, Song Hongbin, et al. Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021[J]. Dis Surveill, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

Citation:

Guo Deyin, Jiang Jiafu, Song Hongbin, et al. Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021[J]. Dis Surveill, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

Citation:

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Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021

doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

1.
Center for Infection and Immunity Study, School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 518107, Guangdong, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China
3.
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China
4.
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
5.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, China
6.
School of Statistics and Data Science, and Institute of Public Heath, and ZhiYing Research Center for Health Data, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
7.
School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China
8.
Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology of Ministry of Education/Health, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 201508, China
9.
Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology (MOE/NHC/CAMS), School of Basic Medical Sciences and Biosafety Level 3 Laboratory, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
10.
Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Sciences, People's Liberation Army of China, Beijing 100071, China
11.
Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
12.
School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China
13.
Research Institute of Public Heath, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China

Funds: This study was supported by grants from the Advisory Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (No. 2020-XZ-37)

More Information

Corresponding author: Xu Jianguo, Email: xujianguo@icdc.cn
Received Date: 2020-12-23
Available Online: 2020-12-30
Publish Date: 2020-12-30

Abstract

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a natural emerging virus, with rapid virus replication, wide cell tropism, and strong survival ability. Its epidemic characteristics are similar to those of influenza virus. Asymptomatic infections are widespread in a covert way, and the virus has adapted to human population, making it difficult to control the transmission. The global epidemic in 2020/2021 may further deteriorate before the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are widely applied and show protective effectiveness, and China will still face the risk of continuous overseas multi-channel import and local outbreaks or recurrence of the epidemic. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out further surveillance about the prevalence and infection of SARS-CoV-2 in the population and the corresponding environment of the high-risk areas in China, and establish a national super mobile SARS-CoV-2 detection network laboratory for performing ultra-large-scale testing tasks; implement differentiated vaccination strategies and closely follow up and monitor the effectiveness and efficiency of vaccination; and continue to strengthen effective public health measures such as wearing masks, washing hands frequently, keeping social distances, opening windows frequently, and reducing gatherings. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic warns us once again that the continuous emergence of new infectious diseases caused by unknown pathogens of wild animal origin has become the new normal status. It is necessary to systematically carry out unknown microbial discovery and reverse pathogenic etiology research in a prospective manner, and actively defend against emerging infectious diseases in the future.
- Coronavirus disease 2019,
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2,
- Natural focal disease,
- Asymmetric carrier,
- Antibody-dependent enhancement

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References(15)

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