Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2021

  Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in January 2021.

  Methods  An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.

  Results  It is expected that the public health emergencies in January 2021 will increase or maintain a similar level compared with that in December 2020. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outside China will continue to spread at a very high level. China will face both risks of spread from the ongoing local transmission and the imported sources from overseas, and also might face the extreme situation of the rapid spreading caused by the massive migration of people returning home before the Spring Festival. However, if the capacity of case detection and isolation, contact tracing and management could be fully maintained or enhanced, the possibility of local large-scale outbreak would be very low. Seasonal influenza would continue to maintain a low level. Sporadic cases of human infection with animal influenza will continue to be detected. Norovirus disease outbreaks will be at a high level before winter holidays. Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning will reach its annual peak in January.

  Conclusion  Special attention should be paid to COVID-19. General attentions should be paid to the seasonal influenza, human infection with animal influenza, norovirus disease and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.