Objective To use a dynamic model to simulate the prevention and control effects of different interventions in the management of norovirus infection outbreaks, and explore the best prevention and control methods.
Methods According to the natural history of norovirus infectious, a SEIAR model was establish to analyze the effects of isolation, class suspension and vomit disposal in a norovirus infection outbreak.
Results Without intervention, the basic reproduction of this outbreak (R0) of the epidemic would be 9.63 and the epidemic would lasted for 4 days. The population infection rate was 97.38%. If the isolation measures were taken, the later the measures were implemented, the more infections occurred, and the duration would has no obvious change. If the isolation started in the afternoon of the second day after the outbreak, the scale of the epidemic would be close to the scale of that without intervention, and the isolation measure would fail. If the class suspension was taken on the second day after the outbreak (the actual start of class suspension), the number of infections and the duration of the epidemic would close to the actual ones, if the class suspension started on the second day afternoon after the outbreak, the epidemic scale would be very close to that under no intervention, and the suspension would fail. Taking no disinfection measures had no influence on the epidemic scale. As the disinfection was strengthened, the number of infections decreased, When the disinfection effect reached more than 90%, there were nearly no cases reported.
Conclusion When an outbreak of norovirus infectious occurred, the control effect would be better if prompt case isolation and class suspension are implemented, and the standardized disposal of case vomit is needed. The SEIAR model established in this study can be used to evaluate the effect of prevention and control measures such as isolation and class suspension.
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