Dynamic communicable disease risk assessment during the Third China International Import Expo in Shanghai

  Objective  To identify and assess the potential communicable disease risk during the Third China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai in 2020 and provide evidence and suggestions for the emergency preparedness and response.

  Methods  Two-round identification and assessment of potential communicable disease risk during CIIE 2020 was conducted by using expert consultation method and semi-quantitative risk matrix method.

  Results  In the first assessment, risk of 16 communicable diseases were categorized into 4 levels (low, moderate, high, very high). The risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was highest, followed by influenza, norovirus infectious diarrhea, varicella, which were escalated into high. 9 were escalated into medium and 3 were low. In the second assessment, the risk of COVID-19 was still highest although the risk was escalated from very high to high. The risk of influenza was escalated from high to moderate while the risk of norovirus infectious diarrhea and varicella were still escalated to high. Risks of other diseases were low.

  Conclusion  The study result provided evidence for the development of public health preparedness plan and prevention and control process during CIIE 2020. The prevention and control of communicable diseases during CIIE 2020 depend on the close multi-sectoral cooperation.