Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in March 2021

  Objective  To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in March 2021 and the risk of importation.

  Methods  According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as ‘countries of global concern’, ‘countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region’ and ‘neighboring countries of special concern’.

  Results  Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases increased by 31.97% and deaths decreased by 4.68% globally in March 2021. The growth rates of newly confirmed and dead cases in Southeast Asia, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas (South) are high, these three regions need critical concern. In many countries, the growth rate of newly confirmed cases exceeded 200% this month. India is the country of special concern among the 14 land-boarding countries.

  Conclusion  Since March, the global COVID-19 has obviously rebounded. It is necessary to continuously monitor regions and countries with global focus, paying attention to the changes of its epidemic situation and prevention and control policies, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies and provide timely warnings.