Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Zhao Qing, Fang Yuansheng, Zhang Rongna, Pang Mingfan, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in April 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(5): 406-410. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202105190278
Citation: Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Zhao Qing, Fang Yuansheng, Zhang Rongna, Pang Mingfan, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in April 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(5): 406-410. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202105190278

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in April 2021

  •   Objective  To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in April 2021 and the risk of importation.
      Methods  According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.
      Results  Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases increased by 52.88% and deaths increased by 28.77% globally in April 2021. The growth rates of newly confirmed and death cases in Southeast Asia increased exponentially, thus the region needs critical concern. In many countries, the growth rate of newly confirmed cases exceeded 100% this month. India is the country of special concern among the 14 land-boarding countries.
      Conclusion  Since April, the infections continued to rise. The number of new confirmed cases has increased to various degrees, except in Africa. The number of new confirmed and death cases in Southeast Asia, Western Pacific and Eastern Mediterranean has greatly increased. After mid-April, the situation in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific region continuously increased, and the situation in other regions improved. It is necessary to continuously monitor regions and countries with a global focus, paying attention to the changes of its epidemic situation and prevention and control policies, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies and provide timely warnings.
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