Probability of premature deaths of 4 major chronic diseases and its change trend in Taian, Shandong, 2014–2019

  Objective   To understand mortality rate, probability of premature deaths caused by four chronic diseases, i.e. cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumor, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes, in Taian of Shandong province, and provide scientific evidence for the development of chronic disease prevention and control strategies.

  Methods   Using the death surveillance data in Taian residents during 2014–2019, The crude mortality rates, age-specific standardized mortality rates, constituent ratios, probabilities of premature deaths of four chronic diseases, the average annual growth rate and annual percentage change (APC) were calculated. The trend change was evaluated by curve estimated exponential distribution regression model with software SPSS 20.0.

  Results   From 2014 to 2019, the deaths caused by four chronic diseases accounted for 88.67% of the total. the overall probability of premature death decreased from 17.08% to 16.46%, the APC was −0.80%, the difference in change trend was significant (P=0.003). The APC of probability of premature death in men was −0.20%, the difference in change trend was not significant (P=0.467). The APC of probability of premature death in women was −1.78%, the difference in change trend was significant (P=0.032). The average probability of premature death caused four chronic diseases in men (22.58%) were higher than that in women (10.81%). Tthe probabilities of premature deaths of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumor, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes in men were 2.02 times, 2.38 times, 2.37 times, 1.06 times higher than those in women.

  Conclusion   The probabilities of premature deaths caused by major chronic diseases showed decline trends in Tai’an, however, the decline trends have not fully met the requirements of “Healthy China 2030” initiative. The concept of “health” should be fully considered in the process of public policy development and implementation, and it is necessary to strengthen the integration of medical treatment and prevention, especially in male population, to accelerate the reduction of premature deaths caused by chronic diseases.