Spatiotemporal distribution during 2014–2019 and prediction of maternal and child mortality in Guangdong

  Objective   To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of maternal and child mortality during 2014–2019 and predict the future trends during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Guangdong province.

  Methods   The indicators related to maternal mortality and child mortality in Guangdong from 2014–2019 were collected, and software ArcGIS was used for spatial analysis and GM (1, 1) model was used for prediction analysis.

  Results   The overall mortality rate under 5 years old (U5MR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) in Guangdong from 2014 to 2019 showed decreasing trends, but the maternal mortality rate (MMR) fluctuated. The 2019 data showed the differences in the indicators were significant among areas. The predicted MMR, U5MR, IMR and NMR in Guangdong by 2025 would be 9.92/100 000, 1.54‰, 1.32‰ and 0.85‰, respectively.

  Conclusion   Maternal and child health care in Guangdong has made some achievement. In the future, it is necessary to further reduce maternal mortality, promote the optimization and integration of medical and health resources and provide life-cycle maternal and child health services.