Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in June 2021

  Objective  To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in June 2021 and the risk of importation.

  Methods  According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighboring countries of special concern”.

  Results  Compared with May 2021, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 40.65% and deaths decreased by 25.37% globally in June 2021. The growth rates of newly confirmed and death cases in Africa increased exponentially, the growth trend accelerated significantly than in May, thus the region needs critical concern. As the growth rate of newly confirmed cases exceeded 20% this month, Colombia, Russia, Indonesia, United Kingdom, South Africa, and Iran were classified as "countries of global concern". Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Tajikistan were the country of special concern among the 14 land-boarding countries.

  Conclusion  Since June, the global COVID-19 pandemic improved. The number of new confirmed cases has decreased to various degrees, except in Africa. The number of new confirmed and death cases in Americas (North), European, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Mediterranean has greatly decreased. It is necessary to continuously monitor regions and countries with a global focus, paying attention to the changes of its epidemic situation and prevention and control policies, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies and provide timely warnings.