Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinpin, Liang Zuoru, Zhang Rongna, Fang Yuansheng, Zhao Qing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(9): 864-868. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202109230516
Citation: Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinpin, Liang Zuoru, Zhang Rongna, Fang Yuansheng, Zhao Qing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(9): 864-868. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202109230516

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2021

  •   Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in August 2021 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as 'countries of global concern', 'countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region' and 'neighbouring countries of special concern'.
      Results   Compared with July 2021, the number of global newly confirmed cases and deaths in August increased by 30.2% and 14.5%. Significant increases in the number of newly confirmed cases and death was observed in Americas (North), Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Europe. Among them, the growth rate in Americas (North) and Western Pacific exceeded 120%. Globally, there were trends that it took much less time for a 10 million case increase and more time for a 500 000 death increase. The United States, Iran, Turkey, France and Malaysia were countries with global concern. Mongolia and Laos were land-boarding countries with special concern.
      Conclusion   Since August, the COVID-19 epidemic saw a big rebound, mainly driven by Americas (North), Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Europe, which needs critical concern. The pandemic of COVID-19 is still serious in the world. It is necessary to continuously monitor the situation in countries with global concern, adjust entry control policies in time and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies for information sharing and timely warnings.
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