Risk assessment of global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in September 2021

  Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19） in September 2021 and the risk of importation.

  Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as "countries of global concern", "countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region" and "neighbouring countries of special concern".

  Results   Compared with August 2021, the number of global newly confirmed cases and deaths in September decreased by 19.9% and 12.0%. Globally, there were trends that it took much more time both for a 10 million case increasing and for a 500 thousand death increasing. The fastest incidence rate was the European and American regions (North). In September, three of the top ten newly confirmed cases in the world came from Europe, and the United States ranked first with 4 138 344 newly confirmed cases. With a growth rate of 39.7% of newly confirmed cases, the Philippines has become the only "country of global concern". With a growth rate of 35.2% of newly confirmed cases, the Ethiopia has become the only "country of the general concern in each WHO sub-region". Russia and Mongolia were the "neighbouring countries of special concern".

  Conclusion   Since September, the global covid-19 epidemic situation has improved. However, there were still large fluctuations in a few countries, which should be paid special attention to, timely communicate and adjusted measures.