Spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guizhou, 2010−2019

  Objective   To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Guizhou province from 2010 to 2019, explore the high-risk areas of tuberculosis in our province, and provide a reference for pulmonary TB prevention and control.

  Methods  From the Tuberculosis Management Information System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, the incidence data of pulmonary TB in Guizhou from 2010 to 2019 were collected. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used for the establishment of geographic information database and result visualization, software GeoDa 1.14.0 was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and software SaTScan 9.5 was used for spatiotemporal scanning statistical analysis.

  Results   A total of 715 985 pulmonary TB cases were reported in Guizhou from 2010 to 2019, with an average annual incidence rate of 143.82/100 000 (103.24/100 000−139.95/100 000), which showed an overall downward trend (P=0.006). The incidence of pulmonary TB in Guizhou had an obvious global spatial positive correlation (Moran's I value was between 0.15 and 0.33). The local spatial autocorrelation results showed that the high-high incidence clusters were mainly distributed in Wangmo, Ziyun, and Zhenfeng counties (P<0.05). The statistical results of spatiotemporal scanning showed that there was a spatiotemporal clustering distribution of pulmonary TB in Guizhou. Five clusters were scanned, covering 41 counties (districts), and the clustering time was 5 years. Among them, the distribution of the first class clusters was in Suiyang and surrounding 23 counties (districts) during 2010−2014.

  Conclusion   From 2010 to 2019, the incidence of pulmonary TB in Guizhou was under control at certain degree, and there was obvious spatial and spatiotemporal clustering. The 5 spatiotemporal clustering areas, Wangmo, Ziyun, Zhenfeng and other counties, are the key areas in the future pulmonary TB prevention and control.