Disease burden and related risk factors of pancreatic cancer in Jiangsu, 1990−2019

  Objective  To analyze the prevalence and the trend of disease burden of pancreatic cancer and related risk factors in Jiangsu province during 1990−2019 and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of pancreatic cancer.

  Methods  The data of 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD2019) were used to calculate the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of pancreatic cancer. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALYs rate. The effects of smoking, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and high body-mass index (BMI) on the burden of pancreatic cancer were also analyzed.

  Results  The standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALYs rate of pancreatic cancer increased in Jiangsu from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC=2.0%, 2.2%, 1.9%, 1.7%). The standardized DALYs rate increased by 66.09% from 118.24/100 000 in 1990 to 196.39/100 000 in 2019, the growth rate was higher in men than in women. Compared with 1990, the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate due to smoking, high FPG and high BMI increased in 2019. The disease burden in people over 65 years old increased significantly, and the disease burden was higher in men than in women.

  Conclusion  In recent 30 years, the disease burden of pancreatic cancer was still heavy in Jiangsu. It is necessary to improve the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer in elderly men, especially in those with smoking history, abnormal blood sugar value and high BMI, and strengthen smoking control and promote healthy diet to reduce the death and disease burden of pancreatic cancer.