Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in March 2022

  Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2022 and the risk of importation.

  Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.

  Results   Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 11.58% and deaths increased by 32.27% globally in March 2022. Daily new confirmed cases and deaths in the Western Pacific region increased rapidly, with monthly growth rate 172.2% and 94.5%, respectively. The time taken for every 50 million new confirmed cases and 5 million deaths globally has decreased significantly. The United Kingdom, Germany, and Vietnam were countries with global concern. Thailand and Botswana were the countries of general concern in the corresponding WHO sub-region. Bhutan was countries with special concern among the 14 neighbouring countries.

  Conclusion   The global daily new confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend in March, but the epidemic situation was prominent in the Western Pacific region and some countries. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus and pay special attention to the prevention and control policies of neighbouring countries, establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.