Assessing excess respiratory disease mortality related to short-term exposure to PM_2.5 in Shanghai, 2013−2017

  Objective  To analyze the dose-response relationship between the short-term daily exposure to fine particulate matter (fine particulate matter, PM_2.5) and respiratory disease mortality in Shanghai from 2013 to 2017, estimate quantitatively the excess mortality of respiratory diseases due to high concentration exposure to PM_2.5.

  Methods  The data collected included meteorological information, air pollution information and death data in Shanghai. Auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to analyze the trend of ambient PM_2.5 concentration and respiratory disease mortality. Generalized additive model of time series analysis was used to analyze the effects of PM_2.5 on risk of excess respiratory disease mortality to estimate excess respiratory disease mortality due to high concentration exposure to PM_2.5.

  Results  From 2013 to 2017, the concentration of PM_2.5 decreased significantly year by year in Shanghai. The seasonal variation of PM_2.5 concentration was obvious, with peak in winter and trough in summer. The annual median of PM_2.5 concentration was higher than the WHO recommended daily concentration (25 μg/m³). There was a significant positive correlation between respiratory disease mortality and PM_2.5 concentration in terms of both long-term and seasonal time exposures. The daily respiratory disease mortality increased by 0.36% for every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10%−0.63%). The number of days when PM_2.5 concentration exceeded WHO recommended limits in Shanghai was 1 382 days (75.68%) , and the number of excess respiratory disease mortality due to high concentration exposure to PM_2.5 was 611.

  Conclusion  The concentration of PM_2.5 and excess respiratory disease mortality in Shanghai decreased obviously from 2013 to 2017. The prevention and control of air pollution achieved good results to benefit people’s health. The number of days when the concentration of PM_2.5 exceeded the recommended limits in Shanghai was still relatively high during the study period. It is necessary to further strengthen the protection of people’s health and the prevention and control of diseases.