Spatiotemporal pattern of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Guiyang based on spatial statistics

  Objective  To analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution model of registered pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) cases at the township/street level in Guiyang, Guizhou province, from 2010 to 2020, and provide evidence for the improvement of local pulmonary TB prevention and control measures.

  Methods  Using the method of spatial statistics, the three-dimensional spatial trend surface analysis, global autocorrelation analysis, clustering and abnormal value, the analysis on the prevalence of pulmonary TB in Guiyang were carried out by software ArcGIS 10.8, and the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary TB cases were analyzed by software SaTScan v10.0.2.

  Results  From 2010 to 2020, the annual registration rate of pulmonary TB was low in the south and high in the north, and showed an “U” from east to west in Guiyang. The annual global Moran's I coefficient was between 0.26 and 0.75 (P<0.001), showing spatial clustering. The areas with “high-high” and abnormal “low-high” clustering were mainly distributed in Kaiyang, Xifeng, Xiuwen and Qingzhen, and the areas with abnormal “high-low” and “low-low” clustering were mainly distributed in urban area. The results of spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that eight spatiotemporal clustering areas were found (P<0.05).

  Conclusion  There were significant spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary TB cases at the township/street level in Guiyang. The hot spots of pulmonary TB gradually changed from Kaiyang, Xifeng, Xiuwen and Qingzhen to urban area during 2010−2020. Targeted measures should be taken to strengthen supervision and management of pulmonary TB cases in different areas for the effective control of pulmonary TB.