Epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of hepatitis B in Sichuan, 2010−2021

  Objective   To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Sichuan province from 2010 to 2021, establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis B, and provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis B in Sichuan.

  Methods   Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Sichuan from 2010 to 2021. Software R 4.0.2 was used to establish an ARIMA model to predict the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Sichuan.

  Results   A total of 536 017 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Sichuan from 2010 to 2021, the average annual incidence rate was 54.44/100 000. The overall incidence rate showed a decreasing trend first and then an increasing trend, and the incidence had no obvious seasonality. The incidence of acute hepatitis B decreased year by year. Liangshan, Bazhong and Ganzi were the areas with high incidences. The majority of the patients were farmers (62.85%), and the cases were mainly aged 35−54 years old (41.83%). The male to female ratio of the cases was 1.95∶1. ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)₁₂ was the optimal model. The actual number of cases from January to June 2022 were all within the 95% CI of the predicted value of the model. The mean absolute percentage error of the model was 4.86%.

  Conclusion   Although the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B in Sichuan has effectively contained the incidence of acute hepatitis B, the overall incidence rate of hepatitis B was still high. Male, those aged 35−54 years and farmer are the key populations in hepatitis B prevention and control. The established ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)₁₂ model can well predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Sichuan.