Spatiotemporal distribution and ecological factors of acute myocardial infarction risk in Yantai, Shandong, 2012−2020

  Objective  To understand the spatiotemporal variation of the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and its ecological influencing factors in Yantai, Shandong province, and provide reference for the prevention and control of AMI.

  Methods  A Bayesian spatiotemporal model was established based on the incidence data of AMI in 155 towns and streets in Yantai from 2012 to 2020 and ecological regression analysis was performed with the population weighted PM_2.5 as a covariate and socioeconomic and environmental factors as modifiers.

  Results  A total of 71926 cases of AMI were reported in 155 towns and streets of Yantai from 2012 to 2020 and there were 27 high-risk towns and streets in total relative risk (RR)>1; the AMI risk increased with time, especially after 2018; the spatiotemporal interaction had a significant impact on the AMI risk δ_it=5.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.16–6.47; ecological regression analysis showed the population weighted PM_2.5 was positively associated with the AMI risk (RR=1.010, 95%CI: 1.004–1.016); multivariate sensitivity analysis showed the population weighted PM_2.5 (RR=1.013, 95%CI: 1.003–1.024) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RR=1.004, 95%CI: 1.002–1.011) were both positively associated with AMI risk and the other variables had no such association.

  Conclusion  The AMI risk in Yantai increased year by year and there was an obvious different trend of risk among different areas with different air pollution status and GDP per capita. It is suggested for government departments to make joint efforts for the economic development, environmental protection and chronic diseases control and prevention.