Objective To develop a cardio-cerebrovascular disease prediction model and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in Henan province.
Methods Using a cohort study design, 5 757 permanent residents aged ≥18 years without baseline cardio-erebrovascular diseases, loss to follow up and missing data in China chronic diseases and risk factor surveillance in Henan during 2013−2014 were selected as the follow-up cohort. Weighted Cox regression analysis was used to construct the model, and C-statistics and calibration curve were used to evaluate the differentiation and calibration of the model, and Bootstrap method was used for internal validation.
Results The mean follow-up time was 7.01±1.02 years, and the cumulative incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular disease was 9.23%. Variables included in the prediction model were age hazard rate (HR) : 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04–1.00, P<0.001, systolic blood pressure (HR: 1.01, 95%CI: 1.01–1.02, P=0.001), smoking (HR: 1.44, 95%CI: 1.19–1.74, P=0.002), anti-hypertension treatment (HR: 1.81, 95%CI: 1.32–2.50, P=0.002), and diabetes (HR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.11–2.00, P=0.014). The C statistic of the model was 0.76 (0.74–0.78), and the calibration curve showed that the predicted value was highly consistent with the observed value. The results of Bootstrap method showed that the bias of the mean value of C statistic was 0.000 16.
Conclusion The model can be used to identify individuals at high risk for cardio-cerebrovascular disease in Henan with good reliability and accuracy.
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