Surveillance and model prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Gansu, 2010−2021

Objective To understand the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot and month disease (HFMD) from 2010 to 2021, predict the incidence of HFMD from 2022 to 2024 in Gansu province and provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.

Methods The incidence data of HFMD in Gansu from 2010 to 2021 were collected for a descriptive epidemiological analysis. The monthly number of HFMD cases in Gansu, from 2010 to 2021 was used to establish a seasonal autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) using the R programming language, and the number of HFMD cases in Gansu from 2022 to 2024 was predicted.

Results A total of 126 265 cases of HFMD were reported in Gansu from 2010 to 2021. The incidence rate was 0.59% in men and 0.41% in women, respectively, the difference was significant (χ²=4 433.505, P＜0.05). The cases were mainly distributed in age group 0–5 years, with the highest case number in age group 1 year (2 9269 cases). The incidence peak occurred every other year. The incidence was lowest in 2020 and highest in 2019. The annual incidence showed two peaks, one was during May-July, anther one (sub-peak) was during September-November. The cases caused by enterovirus 71 (EV71) decreased gradually, other enteroviruses gradually became predominant. the severe and fatal cases were mainly caused by EV71. There was no significant difference in pathogen constituent ratio between men and women. Results from the seasonal ARIMA model ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (2, 1, 1)₁₂ showed that the incidence level of HFMD in Gansu during 2022–2024 was similar to that in 2021 with similar case number and double incidence peaks (P ＞0.05).

Conclusion The children under 5 years old were the population at high risk of hand, foot and mouth disease is mainly caused by virus, among which other enteroviruses gradually became predominant and has seasonal characteristics. The data predicted by the ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (2, 1, 1)₁₂ model can fit well with the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease in Gansu Province and be used for short-term prediction.