Analysis and prediction of lung cancer incidence in Yuyao, Zhejiang, 2014−2021

Objective To understand the incidence pattern of lung cancer in residents in Yuyao, Zhejiang province, from 2014 to 2021, predict the incidence rate of lung cancer in the following four years, and provide evidence for effective prevention and control of lung cancer.

Methods The information of all lung cancer cases diagnosed in Yuyao from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2021 were collected from the chronic disease surveillance module of digital disease control platform of Ningbo. The crude incidence rate of lung cancer, the China/world population based standardized incidence rates, the age specific incidence rate (5-year-old group), the 35–64 years old truncated incidence rate and the 0–74 year old cumulative incidence rate were calculated, and software Joinpoint was used to calculate the average annual percentage of change (AAPC) to analyze the annual change trend of the incidence rate.

Results From 2014 to 2021, a total of 8968 cases of lung cancer were reported in Yuyao, with the incidence rate of 134.08/100 000, the China population based standardized incidence rate of 76.91/100 000, the world population based standardized incidence rate of 59.01/100 000, the 35–64 years old truncated incidence rate of 95.55/100 000 and the 0–74 years old cumulative rate of 7.26%. The incidence rate in men (161.08/100 000) was higher than that in women (107.83/100 000), the difference was significant (χ²=354.016, P<0.001). The crude incidence rate, the China population based standardized incidence rate and the world population based standardized incidence rate all showed an upward trends (AAPC=6.38%, t=5.908, P=0.001; AAPC=4.40%, t=5.710, P=0.001; AAPC=4.85%, t=6.375, P=0.001). The incidence rate increased with age, the peak of incidence rate was 519.74/100 000 in age group ＞75 years. The established GM (1, 1) grey prediction model predicted that the incidence of lung cancer would continue to increase from 2022 to 2025.

Conclusion The incidence rate of lung cancer was high and continue to increase in Yuyao, posing challenges to its prevention and control. It is necessary to establish an integrated management system for the screening, diagnosis and treatment, management and death surveillance of lung cancer and take prevention and control measures targeting both general population and the population at high-risk, such as men, middle-aged and elderly people, to reduce the incidence rate of lung cancer and alleviate related disease burden.