Analysis on trend of lung cancer death in residents aged ≥40 years in China, 2013–2021

Objective To understand the death trend of lung cancer in Chinese residents aged ≥40 years from 2013 to 2021, and provide reference for the prevention and control of lung cancer.

Methods The mortality data of lung cancer and demographic information by age group, sex, urban/rural area and region were collected from the National Disease Surveillance System Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset (2013−2021), and the crude mortality rate was calculated and standardized mortality rate was calculated by using 2010 population census data, and Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of lung cancer death.

Results  The crude lung cancer mortality rate was 91.46/100 000 in residents aged ≥40 years during 2013−2021, showing an increase trend over time average annual percentage change (AAPC)=1.46%, P=0.019, and the standardized mortality rate was 82.96 per 100000. The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in men showed an increasing trend (AAPC=1.71%, P=0.009). Both the crude and standardized mortality rates of lung cancer were higher in men than in women (P<0.001). The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer showed an increasing trend with age (AAPC=54.73%, P<0.001), and the crude mortality rate of lung cancer in age groups 40–49 years and 50–59 years showed decreasing trends with year (AAPC=−4.26%, P<0.001; AAPC=−3.44%, P=0.003). There was a decreasing trend in the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in urban residents (AAPC=−2.37%, P=0.045), and an increasing trend in the crude mortality rate of lung cancer in rural residents (AAPC=2.32%, P<0.001). There was no significant change trend in the mortality rate of lung cancer in eastern, central and western regions from 2013 to 2021 (P>0.05). Eastern region had higher crude and standardized lung cancer mortality rates compared with central region, and central region had higher crude and standardized lung cancer mortality rates compared with western region (χ²=1 380.222, P<0.001, χ²=1 707.541, P<0.001).

Conclusion Lung cancer mortality in residents aged ≥40 years in China increased from 2013 to 2021. There were gender, age, urban-rural area and region specific differences in lung cancer mortality rate. Men, middle-aged and elderly people, and residents of rural and western regions are high-risk groups, to whom priority attention should be paid.