Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, October 2023

  Objective   To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in October 2023.

  Methods  Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.

  Results  It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in October 2023 would be higher than that in September 2023. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as COVID-19, Mpox, influenza, dengue fever, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and hand-foot-mouth disease. The national epidemic of COVID-19 in China would still be at a low level, with less impact on medical order and social operation. Now, the number of reported Mpox cases in Chinese mainland shows a downward trend. Among men who have sex with men (MSM), the risk of sustained transmission of Mpox remains higher and a lower risk in the general population. At present, the influenza is generally at a low level, but the influenza activity is rising. Influenza is expected to reach its peak in autumn and winter, and the epidemic intensity is seasonal. Dengue fever epidemic will show a downward trend. Dengue fever still has the risk of small-scale clustered epidemic, epidemic spillover or local epidemic in some areas. Acute conjunctivitis epidemic may rebound, some provinces with high epidemic incidence will still be concentrated in warm climate areas and the places where clustered epidemics occur are still mainly crowded places such as schools and factories, etc. The epidemic intensity of hand-foot-mouth disease may increase, which does not rule out the possibility of dominant serum changes, genetic variation and serious condition, death caused by new pathogens.

  Conclusion  Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, close attention should be paid to Mpox, and general attention should be paid to influenza, dengue fever, cute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and hand-foot-mouth disease.