Niu Yuanna, Yang Yonghui, Song Xiaoqi, Xu Dongyang, Wei Changhui, Tang Cong, Wang Yan, Zhao Yuling. Analysis on incidence trend of pancreatic cancer death from 2004 to 2021 and its future trend in China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(10): 1351-1356. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202311150605
Citation: Niu Yuanna, Yang Yonghui, Song Xiaoqi, Xu Dongyang, Wei Changhui, Tang Cong, Wang Yan, Zhao Yuling. Analysis on incidence trend of pancreatic cancer death from 2004 to 2021 and its future trend in China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(10): 1351-1356. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202311150605

Analysis on incidence trend of pancreatic cancer death from 2004 to 2021 and its future trend in China

  • Objective To analyze the incidence trend of pancreatic cancer death from 2004 to 2021 and its future trend in China, and provide epidemiological evidence for the effective prevention and control of pancreatic cancer.
    Methods The incidence data of pancreatic cancer death in China during 2004−2021 were selected from the China Death Cause Monitoring Dataset, and the mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in different years were calculated respectively. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the standardized mortality rate were calculated by using software Joinpoint 4.9.1.0. Time series analysis model was used to screen the best model and predict the mortality of pancreatic cancer in next decade in China.
    Results From 2004 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer showed an overall upward trend (AAPC=2.39%, P<0.050) and increased with age in China. The mortality rate in men (2.91/100000−7.46/100000) was higher than that in women (2.22/100000−5.67/100000), the mortality rate in urban area (4.28/100000−7.36/100000) was higher than that in rural area (1.64/100000−6.17/100000), the mortality rate in eastern region was highest (3.82/100000−7.93/100000), and the mortality rate in western region was lowest (1.51/100000−5.06/100000). From 2004 to 2021, the standardized mortality of pancreatic cancer in China showed a fluctuating growth trend (AAPC=2.39%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality trends in men, women and rural area were consistent with the overall trend. The annual standardized mortality rate showed increasing trend in eastern region (AAPC=0.95%, P<0.05), in central region (AAPC=3.86%, P<0.05) and in western region (AAPC=3.97%, P<0.05). Autoregressive integratedmoving average model time series model prediction indicated that the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer would continue to increase in next decade in China.
    Conclusion From 2004 to 2021, there were age, gender, urban and rural and region specific differences in the mortality of pancreatic cancer in China. The elderly and men were the key populations in pancreatic cancer prevention and control. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer in the developed urban areas in the eastern region of China.
  • loading

Catalog

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return