Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, December 2023

Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in December 2023.

Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.

Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in December 2023 would be higher than that in November 2023. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as respiratory infectious diseases including influenza, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The national epidemic of COVID-19 in China would still be at a low level, and acute respiratory infectious diseases would continue to rise. In December, it is necessary to pay close attention to the pressure on clinical diagnosis and treatment caused by the possible rise of COVID-19 and the co-transmission of other respiratory infectious diseases in winter. Among men who have sex with men, the risk of sustained transmission of mpox would still exit, with lower risk in the general population. The activity of influenza in both northern and southern provinces continues to show an upward trend at present, and the rate of increasing in some provinces is slowing down. It is expected that all provinces would reach the influenza epidemic peak in early to mid-December, and the epidemic intensity is seasonal. It is predicted that the prevalence of pertussis and the risk of nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning might remain high.

Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, and general attention should be paid to influenza, mpox, winter respiratory infectious diseases, pertussis and nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning.