Association between temperature and the risk of herpes zoster based on generalized additive model

Objective To quantitatively assess the short-term effects and lag effects of temperature change on the daily number of visits for herpes zoster (HZ).

Methods The daily number of visits for HZ in Beijing from 2016 to 2021 and in Yichang from 2017 to 2022 were collected, as well as daily meteorological surveillance data during the same period. The generalized additive model was used to calculate the excess risk of patients with HZ due to temperature change adjusted for secular trend, seasonal trend, day of week, relative risk and other meteorological confounders, and analyze the association between temperature and the risk of HZ.

Results A total of 515393 HZ cases were included during the study period. The GAM-based time series showed that outdoor temperature had statistically significant effects on the onset of HZ (P<0.001). The average daily number of visits for HZincreased by 0.30%95% confidence interval(CI): 0.20%−0.40% and 1.03% (95%CI: 0.85%−1.21%) in Beijing and Yichang, respectively, with an increase of 1 ℃ in average daily temperature. The results of lag effect showed that the excess risk in Beijing and Yichang reached a peak of 0.41% (95%CI: 0.27%−0.56%) and 1.09% (95%CI: 0.91%−1.28%) at lag 11 days and lag 4 days, respectively. The results of seasonal subgroups showed that the effect value was higher in Beijing and Yichang in warm and cold seasons respectively.

Conclusion Rising temperature resulted in the risk of HZ increase with lag effects. There are regional differences in the temperature effect results in Beijing and Yichang areas.