Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Aksu, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in recent years, and provide evidence for the development and improvement of human brucellosis prevention and control measures in Aksu.
Methods The descriptive epidemiological analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Aksu from 2010 to 2023 was conducted by using software R 4.2.1. The Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal clustering analysis on the incidence rate of human brucellosis were performed by using software ArcGIS 10.7 and SaTScan 10.1.
Results From 2010 to 2023, a total of 6830 cases of locally transmitted human brucellosis were reported in Aksu, with an average annual incidence rate of 20.90/100 000. The incidence rate showed increase firstly, then decrease, and increase again, peaking in 2014 and gradually decreased afterwards. However, there was an upward trend in the incidence from 2020 to 2023. The annual incidence peak was during May - September. The incidence rate was higher in men than in women (χ2=1193.700, P<0.001). The highest incidence rate was observed in age group 60–79 years (χ2=1887.700, P<0.001). The majority of the cases were farmers and herdsmen (81.26%). Spatial clustering of brucellosis incidence was observed in Aksu from 2010 to 2013 and from 2021 to 2022 (global Moran´s I value <0, P<0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed four low-low clustering areas (Wensu, Shaya, Kuqa, and Xinhe) and two low-high outlier areas (Aksu and Wushi). Spatiotemporal clustering analysis identified primary and secondary clustering areas distributed in Baicheng, Wensu, Wushi, and Keping.
Conclusion The case count and incidence rate of human brucellosis in Aksu fluctuated and increased year by year, with spatiotemporal clustering and seasonal patterns. Enhanced surveillance for both animal and human brucellosis should be implemented in areas with developed livestock industry and high incidence rates of the disease. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be implemented, and close attention should be paid to changes in the incidence trend of human brucellosis.