Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, March 2024

Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in March 2024.

Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.

Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in March 2024 would be higher than that in February 2024. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases. The epidemic of JN.1 variant of COVID-19 in China is expected to continue to rise, but the impact on medical services is still at a low level, with a projected decrease in COVID-19 incidence in March. Influenza epidemics are on the decline, and the start of the new semester may lead to clustered outbreaks in schools and nursery. The prevalence of pertussis might remain high. Viral diarrhea outbreaks in schools caused by norovirus might increase.

Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, and general attention should be paid to influenza, pertussis and norovirus infection.