Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in March 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in March 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In March 2024, 25 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 46 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 1 high-risk event and 21 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 13 high-risk events and 39 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to focus on the outbreak of Group A streptococcal pharyngitis in Japan, and to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in some countries in South America and Asia, fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Japan, mpox in Cambodia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, cholera in some countries in Africa, polio in Pakistan, Casanou forest disease in India, and possible import risks from Zika virus disease in some countries in South America. International travelers are advised to focus on Group A streptococcal pharyngitis outbreak in Japan, diphtheria outbreak in Nigeria, dengue fever outbreak in some South America and Asian countries, cholera outbreak in some African countries, and Lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria, and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by the Oroche fever outbreak in Brazil, diphtheria outbreaks in some African countries, dengue fever outbreaks in some South America, Asia, and African countries, Mpox outbreaks in Cambodia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, cholera outbreaks in Ethiopia, Comoros, Haiti, and Zimbabwe, polio outbreaks in multiple African countries, Kyasanur Forest disease outbreaks in India, Nipah virus infections in Bangladesh, Western equine encephalitis outbreaks in Argentina, and cholera outbreaks in some South American countries may pose infection risks.