Objective To analyze the prevalence and distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly aged ≥65 years in Jiangxi province from 2010 to 2023 and provide evidence for the reduction of pulmonary TB incidence in the elderly and the development of prevention and treatment strategies.
Methods The information of pulmonary TB cases aged ≥65 years in Jiangxi from 2010 to 2023 were collected through China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Joinpoint regression model was used for trend tests for reported incidences of pulmonary TB in the elderly. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses at county level were carried out by using ArcGIS 10.8.
Results A total of 122 762 pulmonary TB cases aged ≥65 years were reported in Jiangxi from 2010 to 2023, with an average annual reported incidence of 203.32/100,000. The overall incidence of pulmonary TB showed a decreasing trend in the elderly in Jiangxi average annual percent change (AAPC)=−5.55%, P<0.05. The temporal distribution of pulmonary TB incidence of pulmonary TB in the elderly showed seasonality and periodicity, with annual high incidence in March, but the incidence peak and periodicity in 2020, 2022, and 2023 were not obvious. Global autocorrelation analysis found that there was spatial clustering of incidence of pulmonary TB in the elderly from 2010 to 2023 (Moran's I=0.33, Z=6.173, P=0.001). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the “high-high” clustering areas were mainly distributed in Yifeng, Fengxin, Gao'an, Shanggao, and Yushui. The “low-low” clustering areas were mainly distributed in some counties (districts) of Pingxiang in western Jiangxi and some counties (districts) of Ji'an and Ganzhou in southern Jiangxi.
Conclusion The overall incidence of pulmonary TB in the elderly aged ≥65 years showed an downward trend in Jiangxi from 2010 to 2023. The incidence showed periodicity, the annual incidence peaked in March and the reported incidence had spatial clustering at county level. Effective prevention and treatment strategies should be developed to control the prevalence of pulmonary TB in the elderly in periods and areas with high-incidence.