Objective To analyze the mortality, premature death probability and change trend of cardio/cerebrovascular disease, malignant tumor, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes in local residents in Fengxian district of Shanghai from 2012 to 2021 and provide evidence for the development of local chronic disease management policies.
Methods Based on the death cause surveillance data of local residents from Shanghai Coroner's Registration System in Fengxian from 2012 to 2021, the mortality rate and the probabilities of premature deaths of the 4 types of chronic diseases were analyzed, and the trend analysis was conducted by using software Joinpoint 5.0 to calculate the annual percentage change (APC).
Results From 2012 to 2021, the constituient ratio of deaths caused by the 4 types of chronic diseases in total deaths in Fengxian increased from 78.94% to 85.18%, showing an upward trend (APC=0.73%, P<0.05), while the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend (APC= −2.20%, P<0.05). The probability of premature death decreased from 9.75% in 2012 to 8.04% in 2021. There was no statistically significant difference in the change trend for cardio/cerebrovascular diseases (APC= −0.68%, P>0.05), while the probabilities of premature deaths of chronic respiratory disease (APC= −7.12%, P<0.05) and malignant tumor (APC= −2.83%, P<0.05) showed downward trends, and the probability of premature death of diabetes showed an upward trend (APC=3.31%, P<0.05).
Conclusion The standardized mortality rate and premature death probabilities of four types of chronic diseases in local population in Fengxian showed downward trends. The goal of reducing the probabilities of premature deaths from four types of chronic diseases in “Healthy China 2030 Initiative” can be reached in whole population and women, but men still have a gap from the goal. It is still necessary to further strengthen the prevention and control of chronic disease, especially in men and people with diabetes.
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