Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in May 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in May 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In May 2024, 12 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 36 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 39 low-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 32 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in some countries in South America, Africa, and Asia, cholera in Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Comoros, Somalia, and Mozambique, monkey pox in Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Africa, polio in Angola, Chad, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Yemen, Ethiopia, Guinea, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, yellow fever in Bolivia, Ebola hemorrhagic fever in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and diphtheria in Yemen. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in Asian countries around China (Bangladesh, Singapore, Laos, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia), Brazil, Argentina, Guatemala, and Burkina Faso, cholera outbreak in Mozambique, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Comoros, Somalia, and Zimbabwe, Polio in Angola, Chad, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Yemen, Ethiopia, Guinea, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger, mpox in Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand, Indonesia, anthrax in Kyrgyzstan and India, Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Democratic Republic of Congo, Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome in Saudi Arabia, diphtheria in Yemen, highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in the United States, and yellow fever in Bolivia.