Analysis of the changes in the causes of death and life expectancy in residents of Baoshan district in Shanghai, 2012−2021

Objective To analyze the changes in death patterns and life expectancy in residents of Baoshan district in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021.

Methods Demographic and death cause data of registered residents in Baoshan from 2012 to 2021 were collected, and the life expectancy was calculated by using abbreviated life expectancy table. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of life expectancy. Arriaga's method was used to decompose changes in life expectancy contributed by age groups and causes of death.

Results From 2012 to 2021, the life expectancy of residents in Baoshan increased by 1.80 years average annual percentage change (AAPC) =0.28%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21%–0.35% and life expectancy increased by 1.66 years in men (AAPC=0.27%, 95%CI: 0.14%–0.40%) and 1.98 years (AAPC=0.30%, 95%CI: 0.23%–0.32%) in women. All age groups contributed positively to the life expectancy, with age group 65– years having the biggest contribution (1.27 years, 70.48%). The life expectancy increased by 1.72 years in women (87.05%) and 0.92 years in men (55.04%) in this age group. The positive contribution rates of respiratory diseases, tumors and circulatory diseases to the life expectancy were 30.84%, 30.26% and 12.76%, respectively. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases had the highest rate of negative contribution to the life expectancy (11.12%).

Conclusion The life expectancy of residents in Baoshan in Shanghai increased significantly from 2012 to 2021. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases had the biggest negative contribution to the life expectancy. Targeted measures should be taken to reduce the mortality of endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases in the prevention and control of diseases to improve the life expectancy.